5.6 East Africa

The average family size in East Africa is about 5.5, typical of Africa’s entire continent, and translates into exploding population growth. In many areas of Africa, East Africa, in particular, most of the population (as much as 80 percent) makes a living off the land in agricultural pursuits. Large families in rural areas create the conditions for the highest levels of a rural-to-urban shift of any continent worldwide. In addition, the large cities—with expanding business operations and communication and transportation systems that link up with global activities—attract people seeking more significant employment opportunities. Each of the three largest cities in East Africa—Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, and Addis Ababa—is more populous than Chicago, the third-largest US city. In West Africa, Lagos, Nigeria, is more populous than the combination of New York City and Chicago. These cities are all riding the worldwide wave of globalization and are core centers of economic activity for the business sector and corporate enterprises.

The other regions of Africa all have central cities that act as economic core areas and attract the multitudes from rural areas looking for employment and opportunities. International connections are indicative of local economic development, causing urban areas to grow at exponential rates. Cities profoundly affected by a high rural-to-urban shift often need to build infrastructure faster to meet demand. Self-constructed slums and squatter settlements, which lack essential public services such as electricity, sewage disposal, running water, or transportation systems, circle the cities. As a result, Africa’s large cities are expanding at unsustainable rates. Traffic congestion, trash buildup, higher crime rates, health problems, and air pollution are typical results.

As of 2010, the US population was about 80 percent urban. This is the opposite of places like East Africa, where about 80 percent remain rural. In the next few decades, Africa could witness the growth of megacities that continue to expand and grow for another century. For example, if the current rates continue, Ethiopia’s population of eighty-five million people in 2010 will double to more than 160 million by 2040. Urban areas will continue to be target destinations for employment opportunities, whether they exist, and rural-to-urban shifts will drive the populations of cities such as Addis Ababa to double, triple, or quadruple in size by 2020.